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I always thought that i was good at cricket analysis, and could predict outcomes of matches as anyone else could 🙂 . Just that 70-80% of the times i had got it right. In a span of 15 years of watching cricket, must have at least seen 20 matches avg per year.

😉 so with this broad experience and having watched a couple of the matches in IPL season 3, the following are my predictions for this year.

i think the key to putting pressure on the opposition is to have batsmen who can tonk the ball in the overs 7-14 without fear of losing wickets. At the same time having bowlers who can ensure momentum between 7-14 overs is not generated. If you notice the teams which have been able to do this have been winning comfortably.

Mumbai Indians – Definite Semi Finalist. Probably the most dashing Indian Domestic talent in Tiwary and rayadu in terms of destroying attacks + fit fine hungry classy sachin. Weak link seems to be Jayasurya in batting and west indian bowlers Keiron pollard and bravo. A quality spinner is missing, bhaji for all his doosras and teesras ( with bent or without bent arms ) gets tonked every match for a couple of sixes. Also so far Lasith Malinga has not got his rhythm right and is not bowling in the high 140’s as he usually does.

Royal Challengers Bangalore – The way things are going, a sure shot finalist. With Ross Taylor, Cameron White  to come along with Eoin Morgan[ batting looks deadly]. With Manish Pandey, Robin Uthapa, virat kohli and two above mentioned players from overs 7-14 no teams bowlers would be spared. There biggest weakness would be finding a place for Kevin Peterson too. The team balance and unity would be affected big time. Without him, when the above 2 are there boucher would make way for srivats goswami or dravid would don the gloves and 4 foreign players would be cameron white, ross taylor, dale steyn and jacques kallis. With Vinay Kumar, jacque Kallis and kumble bowling in tandem between overs 7 – 14 any team would have a tough time tonking the ball. Major weakness is an untested lower middle order.

Deccan Chargers – Might make it to Semis because of there  tooo tooo destructive top order with Adam Gilchrisht, Herchelle gibbs and Andrew Symonds. Bowling is heavily dependant on Vass as well as reliable pragyan ojha. Biggest weakness is rp singh and co who are getting successfully tonked. Domestic talent looks weak on paper and is more to fill in the overs in batting and bowlign. Can make it to semis only on individual brilliance.

Chennai Super Kings – Looks on par with mumbai indians with regards to late order destructive batting. Except Dhoni, Hayden and Raina others are yet to fire. Looks a formidable middle order with Subramanian Badrinath, M Vijay, Albie Morkel, Justin Kemp. Overs 7-14, acceleration isnt going to happen, if haydo or raina get out.  Strategy seems to be to wait till 15 over before going all out. Justin Kemp isnt the immediate hitter guy, he could be a phenomenal asset causing destruction if more time is given to him to settle. To me such a talent is being wasted down the order. Quite contrary to other calling CSK ‘s bowling attack weak, i think its extremly balanced. First 6 overs however good the bowler is they can go for runs. So i will discount that and say there biggest strength is overs 7-15 bowled by wily Murali and Carrom ball Ashwin. Biggest plus is playing as a team under dhoni. When Mike Hussey is back the teams chances of going to semis look extremly good.

Kings XI Punjab – Am sure most of you would have been surprised by this choice, I expect this team to bounce back and reach the semis. Just feel they are an extremly well balanced side and play as a unit. After finally realizing your main strike bowler cannot go for 50 + runs in 2 consecutive matches, they managed to win thanks to chennai choking big time. The x factor are irfan pathan, piyush chawala and latest addition to bowling arsenal shalabh Srivatsav and Theron chap. Yuvraj, Kumara Sangakara and Mahela havent yet fired. With return of bret lee bowling can only get better.

Delhi DareDevils – On Paper the strongest team, but heavily relying on individual brilliance. Shewag, Gambhir, Devilliers, David Warner, Dinesh Karthik and Dirk nannes. Looks like 6 out of 11 should be able to deliver the results, my gut feel says no. Also overs 7-14 big hits nope. One of the batsman have to keep firing producing special knocks for that to happen. Dinesh Karthik, Ab Devilliers can produce a 50 of 30 to 35 balls at a strike rate of 150 + hmm but no… Over reilance on Maharoof to produce the balance. They might just make it barely to the semis thanks to choking of other teams.

Kolkata Knight Riders – Out of form Big Stars,  no team spirit, Saurav Ganguly are the reasons why i am discounting this side. They have a wonderful coach, good domestic talent laxmi ratan shukla, cheteshwar Pujara, ICL fame Vignesh but still dada is at helm. So no.

Rajasthan Royals – First season they won because of unity and shane warnes backing of young talent. Also the watsons, Smiths, tanvirs fired at the right moment. Over reliance on Yusuf Pathan, extremly weak opening, middle and late middle order are the  reasons why i am discounting this side.

So Royal Challengers bangalore i am confident will reach the finals.

Its a fight for 2 more spots. I am confident Mumbai Indians would make it to the semis.  The other 2 would be a battle between Chennai Super Kings, Deccan Chargers. Punjab Kings XI and Delhi Dare Devils i would give an outside chance thanks to above two teams choking.

Throwing open the floor for discussions.

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One response to this post.

  1. Posted by sakshit on March 22, 2010 at 3:55 pm

    Sir I agree to the statistics but i am still not sure abt kings 11 Punjab. They have a slim chance.

    Reply

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